With spring on the horizon, New Zealand’s property market is holding a steady line – but look closer, and the signals are far from uniform.
The latest QV House Price Index reveals a mucky market, not yet in recovery – with data showing average home values dipped by 0.5% over the three months to July, bringing the national average to $909,671. While values remain almost unchanged compared to this time last year, they are still sitting 13.1% below the January 2022 peak.
This picture of stability masks a deeper story – some regions are showing renewed growth while others remain subdued. For investors, that means opportunity is emerging – but only for those who can separate signal from noise.
At Norfolk Mortgage Trust, our job isn’t to chase every market movement. It’s to read the data carefully, lend with discipline and protect investor capital through all conditions.
Regional Variations Tell the Real Story
The July quarter highlighted strong contrasts across the country:
- Growth pockets: Queenstown (+2.4%), Tauranga (+1.7%), Invercargill (+1.2%), and Northland (+1.2%) all posted gains, driven by demand from first-home buyers, owner-occupiers, and confidence in local economic resilience.
- Stable performers: Christchurch remained essentially flat (-0.2%), demonstrating the city’s ongoing steadiness compared to other centres.
- Softer Spots: Auckland (-1.2%), Wellington (-2.3%), Hamilton (-1.0%) and Dunedin (-1.5%) continued to soften, reflecting affordability pressures and cautious buyers in larger urban markets.
This divergence reflects a market where buyers are being selective and value-driven. Affordable and well-located properties are attracting competition, while high-end or overvalued stock often lingers.
First-Home Buyers Drive Activity, Investors Wait and Watch
QV’s data shows the most active participants remain first-home buyers and owner-occupiers. They’re supported by:
- A wide choice of listings
- Relatively stable mortgage rates
- Improved access to finance
At the same time, investor activity remains muted, particularly in Auckland and Wellington, where higher rates, rising costs (insurance, rates, maintenance), and subdued rental demand are weighing on confidence. Some landlords are even exiting, increasing supply for buyers.
Yet in regions like Invercargill, Gore, and Wairoa, higher yields and affordable entry points are drawing cautious investor interest back into the market. This suggests early signs of a gradual return – but only where the underlying conditions are sound.
The Bigger Picture: Economics Shape Sentiment
Beyond property-specific trends, wider economic forces continue to shape behaviour:
- OCR & mortgage rates: The Reserve Bank recently trimmed the Official Cash Rate by 0.25%, signalling its intent to support a fragile economy. This has helped solidify expectations of an easing interest rate cycle into 2026.
- Employment: Unemployment has ticked up to 5.2%, the highest since 2020, adding to buyer caution.
- Cost of living: Rising insurance premiums, local council rates and household expenses continue to squeeze affordability.
Together, these factors create a market that is stable but cautious. For disciplined, data-led investors, that’s fertile ground.
What This Means for Norfolk Mortgage Trust Investors
At Norfolk Mortgage Trust, we look past the headlines to focus on fundamentals. In today’s market, that means:
- Steady Returns: Annualised pre-tax return of 7.00% p.a. (as of 31 July 2025).
- Capital Protection: Conservative loan-to-value ratios and a rigorous borrower vetting process.
- Diversified Lending: A portfolio spanning residential, commercial, and regional property markets – reducing exposure to any single location.
- Proven Consistency: Since 2006, we’ve delivered uninterrupted monthly returns, navigating peaks, troughs, and economic shocks alike.
For investors, the message is clear: while market sentiment may be uncertain, your returns don’t need to be.
Resilience Is Built, Not Borrowed
Market noise will always shift. One month values dip, the next they rise. But resilience doesn’t come from chasing each movement – it comes from a disciplined strategy applied consistently over time.
That’s why our investors continue to trust us: because Norfolk Mortgage Trust delivers with consistency, and confidence through every cycle.
As spring listings increase and the market searches for its next direction, we’ll keep doing what we always have: investing where the fundamentals are strong, and protecting capital first.
Invest with Confidence. Invest with Norfolk Mortgage Trust.
If you’re seeking stable, property-backed monthly returns, backed by a team with nearly two decades of proven performance, now is the time to talk.
Speak to our team today and discover how disciplined lending, expert management, and deep property insight can help you move forward with confidence.
Norfolk Mortgage Trust – Trusted Expertise. Consistent Returns. Property-Backed Confidence.
Data Source: QV’s July 2025 House Price Index Report