As we move deeper into winter, New Zealand’s property market continues to show signs of stabilisation. The latest QV House Price Index for May 2025 shows New Zealand’s residential property market is gradually finding its footing. With nationwide values largely steady in May and confidence quietly building, the market is entering a more settled, opportunity-rich phase.
At Norfolk Mortgage Trust, we don’t react to the market. We read it carefully, lend with caution, and invest with purpose. Our investment strategy is grounded in long-term thinking, deep market understanding and conservative lending. That’s how we continue delivering reliable monthly returns to our investors, no matter where the market sits on the curve.
A Market in Slow Motion – But Gaining Its Balance
According to the QV House Price Index for May 2025, average home values rose ever so slightly – up 0.1% over the quarter to a new national average of $913,772. While this marks a 1.1% decline on this time last year, and 14.1% below the market peak of late 2021, it signals a soft landing after the sharp shifts of recent years.
But what’s more telling than the headline figures is the mood shift beneath them. According to QV’s James Wilson, the rate of softening is slowing and “tentative confidence” is returning, especially in mid-tier urban areas.
Several regions are showing quiet strength:
- Christchurch posted a 1.3% gain and is now sitting above its 2021 market peak
- Whangārei, Hastings, and Nelson all recorded over 1% growth
- Hamilton, Tauranga, and parts of Northland crept into positive territory
- Meanwhile, areas like Auckland and Wellington saw modest declines – but with value holding better in mid-range and entry-level suburbs
What we’re seeing isn’t a sudden upswing, but a return to balance – with stabilising values, easing interest rates, and a broader return to activity supporting the shift.
Returning Buyers Reignite Activity – And Investors are Right Behind Them
One of the most promising trends this winter is the return of owner-occupiers – particularly in the mid to upper-middle value brackets. Encouraged by softening mortgage rates and improving buyer confidence, these returning buyers are bringing fresh momentum to urban centres that had recently gone quiet.
At the same time, investors are becoming more active, particularly in lower-value and regional markets where yields remain attractive and competition is lighter. With interest deductibility gradually returning and more investment stock entering the market, seasoned investors are stepping forward to take advantage of a quieter playing field.
This dual presence – of returning buyers and opportunistic investors – is creating subtle competitive pressure in some parts of the country. But with vendor expectations still cautious and stock levels high, price growth remains under control for now.
Confidence in a Cautious World: What’s Driving the Mood?
While local activity is improving, it’s unfolding within a wider climate of uncertainty. Globally, rising trade tensions and geopolitical instability – including US tariffs and ongoing armed conflicts – are keeping markets on edge. At home, concerns around job security and a softer economic outlook continue to influence buyer sentiment.
The result? A market where confidence is rebuilding, but still tentative. Buyers are active, but discerning. Growth is present, but not rushing. And in our view, that makes it an ideal environment for value-focused lending and disciplined investing.
What This Means for Norfolk Mortgage Trust Investors
At Norfolk Mortgage Trust, we continue to focus on what we do best: providing stable, property-backed returns for our investors, without chasing speculation or short-term gains. We’re not here to ride the waves – we’re here to build a vessel that stays steady through all seasons.
- Proven Performance: Since 2006, we’ve weathered every cycle to deliver monthly returns for our investors.
- Consistent Returns: Annualised pre-tax return of 7.00% p.a. (as of 31 May 2025)
- Conservative Lending Approach: We never chase risky gains – we protect your capital first.
- Diversified, Actively Managed Portfolio: Our nationwide spread helps insulate your investment from regional fluctuations.
Confidence Isn’t Just a Feeling – It’s a Strategy
As the broader market finds its footing, our message to investors is simple: the opportunity is now.
We’re seeing a more rational, value-driven market take shape. While others hesitate, Norfolk Mortgage Trust keeps moving forward – applying expertise, discipline and clarity to every lending decision.
With us, you’re not reacting to market swings. You’re investing in a strategy built for resilience.
Invest with Confidence. Invest with Norfolk Mortgage Trust.
Whether you’re planning your next move or looking to diversify your portfolio, our team is here to help you make informed, confident decisions – backed by real property and real returns.
Talk to us today about securing consistent monthly income with a trusted property lending partner.
In a market finding its balance, now’s the time to invest with confidence.
Talk to us today about securing steady returns backed by real property, disciplined lending, and proven performance.
Norfolk Mortgage Trust – Trusted Expertise. Consistent Returns. Property-Backed Confidence.
Data Source: QV’s May 2025 House Price Index Report