As we move into the second half of 2025, the New Zealand property market continues to recalibrate. The latest QV House Price Index shows average home values edged down 0.3% over the June quarter – a modest decline that reflects ongoing buyer caution, high stock levels and a broader sense of economic uncertainty.
Yet alongside this softness, we’re seeing signs of a market gradually finding its balance. Buyer activity is returning in more affordable brackets, regional growth is emerging, and easing interest rates are providing a foundation for renewed – albeit cautious – confidence.
At Norfolk Mortgage Trust, these are conditions we’re well accustomed to. We don’t chase the highs or fear the lows. Instead, we focus on what doesn’t change: the importance of disciplined lending, smart asset selection, and protecting investor capital in all seasons.
Regional Divergence Takes Shape
Nationally, home values fell slightly to an average of $910,479 over the June quarter, marking a 0.6% decline year-on-year and keeping values around 14.5% below the late 2021 peak. While these figures suggest a subdued national picture, they also mask growing regional variation.
Several areas have posted meaningful gains:
- Far North (+5.8%), Waitomo (+5.2%), Wairoa (+12.6%), and Gore (+8.8%) led the country in quarterly growth.
- Queenstown (+1.9%) and Invercargill (+1.6%) continued to attract steady demand.
- Hamilton (+0.5%), Christchurch (+0.1%), and parts of Whangārei and Tauranga also saw modest increases.
Conversely, large urban centres such as Auckland (-1.0%), Wellington (-2.3%), and Dunedin (-1.5%) experienced declines, particularly in mid-to-upper price brackets. Still, first-home buyers remained active in lower-value suburbs, with strong interest in new townhouse developments and well-priced, modern homes.
First-Home Buyers Lead, Investors Return Cautiously
One of the key dynamics this quarter is the re-emergence of first-home buyers and owner-occupiers. With interest rates holding steady and affordability pressures easing slightly, many are taking advantage of increased stock levels and greater choice – particularly in lower to mid-value segments.
At the same time, investor activity is beginning to lift. Areas offering higher yields and lower competition – often regional or second-tier cities – are drawing renewed interest from seasoned investors. This is partly driven by a more favourable tax environment, but also by the recognition that market conditions now favour strategic, value-driven purchases.
While buyer sentiment remains cautious overall, this dual momentum is helping to restore activity in many markets – even if price growth remains restrained for now.
A Market for the Patient and Prepared
Despite encouraging signs, the broader economic backdrop remains mixed. Global instability, lingering inflationary pressure, and employment uncertainty continue to shape buyer behaviour – keeping confidence in check.
Yet within this context, opportunity is building.
The Reserve Bank’s recent decision to hold the OCR at 3.25% has helped solidify expectations of a stable or even easing rate environment. Mortgage lending conditions have improved, and buyer demand – while selective – is growing in areas where value stacks up.
In short: this is a market that rewards preparation, patience, and clear strategy.
What This Means for Norfolk Mortgage Trust Investors
At Norfolk Mortgage Trust, we read the data, not the headlines. In a property market where signals are mixed but opportunity is real, our approach remains unchanged:
- Steady Returns: Annualised pre-tax return of 7.00% p.a. (as of 30 June 2025)
- Capital First: We protect investor capital with conservative loan-to-value ratios and a robust vetting process.
- Diverse Portfolio: Our loans are spread across residential, and commercial properties nationwide – reducing regional risk exposure.
- Proven Performance: We’ve delivered consistent monthly returns for our investors since 2006 – through cycles, shocks, and everything in between.
Resilience Is a Strategy – Not a Trend
While market sentiment continues to shift, our focus remains steady. Norfolk Mortgage Trust is built on long-term thinking, not short-term speculation. We lend where the value is clear, not just where the noise is loud.
As volatility fades and structure returns to the market, our message to investors is simple: this is the moment to lean into experience, clarity and consistency.
Invest with Confidence. Invest with Norfolk Mortgage Trust.
If you’re looking to grow your capital through stable, property-backed monthly returns, backed by a team that knows how to navigate changing conditions – now is a good time to talk.
Speak to our team today and discover how disciplined lending, expert management, and deep property insight can help you move forward with confidence.
Norfolk Mortgage Trust – Trusted Expertise. Consistent Returns. Property-Backed Confidence.
Data Source: QV’s June 2025 House Price Index Report