As the warmth of summer fades and cooler days settle in, the latest QV House Price Index paints a picture of a property market that’s steady – almost motionless – across much of New Zealand. But at Norfolk Mortgage Trust, we don’t see flat conditions as a sign to sit back. Instead, we view this as a strategic window – a chance for informed investors to capitalise while others wait on the sidelines.
Here’s a closer look at what’s happening – and how it matters for your investment decisions.
Because smart investing isn’t about timing the market – it’s about moving when others pause.
A National Market Holding Steady
Residential property values in New Zealand edged up just 0.2% over the March quarter, lifting the national average home value to $903,928. This follows 0.5% growth in the February quarter and underscores the prevailing trend: a market that’s stable but subdued. Year-on-year, national values remain 2.3% lower than March 2024, and are sitting 15% below their peak in late 2021.
This gentle upward movement reflects what QV operations manager James Wilson describes as a “virtually motionless” market – one in which home values fluctuate only slightly month to month, but with no meaningful momentum building in either direction.
High Listings, Cautious Buyers, and a Stabilising Economy
Two dominant forces are shaping the current property market:
A surplus of property listings – More properties are for sale than there is buyer demand, leading to downward pressure on prices.
Economic caution – Despite falling interest rates, ongoing high living costs and rising unemployment are influencing buyers to hold back until conditions improve.
As Wilson notes, “ample properties for sale and a lack of meaningful competition are helping keep prices really flat for now.” This benefits well-positioned buyers and lenders, who now enjoy greater choice and stronger negotiating power.
Why It Matters for Investors
Flat markets are often misunderstood. While some view them as uneventful, we see opportunity in their stability. For strategic investors, a calm market provides:
- Predictability in valuation trends
- Greater yield focus over short-term speculation
- Enhanced bargaining power as buyer urgency eases
This is where experienced, conservative lenders – like Norfolk Mortgage Trust – are uniquely positioned to thrive, using market knowledge and borrower diligence to deliver consistent returns backed by real assets.
Signs of Investor Re-Entry
While first-home buyers remain the most active market segment, there’s clear evidence that investors are beginning to re-enter the market, driven by:
- The restoration of interest deductibility for rental properties
- Falling interest rates, with further reductions expected
- An emerging “get in early” sentiment – with some investors looking to position ahead of a potential rebound.
At Norfolk Mortgage Trust, we’re seeing this first-hand. In a market where uncertainty is keeping many on the sidelines, more investors are turning to trusted, property-backed solutions like ours – seeking the stability, consistency, and performance that mortgage trusts can deliver, without the complexities of direct property ownership.
Norfolk Mortgage Trust, Your Trusted Investment Partner
While the property market remains in a holding pattern, cautiously waiting for economic conditions to improve, Norfolk Mortgage Trust continues to offer investors consistent, property-backed monthly returns they can rely on.
With us, you can navigate this landscape with confidence, knowing your investment is managed by a team that prioritises security, transparency, and performance.
- Conservative and Secure Lending Practices: Protecting your capital is at the heart of everything we do. Each loan is secured by a first registered mortgage, ensuring Norfolk Mortgage Trust holds the primary claim on the underlying property in the unlikely event of default.
- Strength Through Diversification: Our portfolio spans a wide range of property types and locations across New Zealand. This diversification helps cushion the impact of regional fluctuations, enhancing our ability to deliver steady, reliable returns, no matter the market conditions.
- Built-In Safeguards: Loan-to-Value Ratios: We maintain conservative loan-to-value ratios, creating a strong equity buffer that helps protect investor capital even during periods of market volatility. Our current LVR is updated monthly and published on our website – part of our commitment to transparency and accountability.
- Proven Results Over Time: With an annualised, pre-tax rate of 7.25% p.a. (31st March, ‘25), our track record speaks for itself.
Invest with Confidence, While Others Wait.
In a cautious market, Norfolk Mortgage Trust offers a steady hand. Our disciplined approach, deep market insight, and focus on capital protection mean you don’t need to sit back and wait for perfect conditions.
Because smart investing isn’t about timing the market – it’s about moving when others pause.
Ready to make your next move?
Let’s talk about how Norfolk Mortgage Trust can help you reach your investment goals.
Norfolk Mortgage Trust – Trusted Expertise. Consistent Returns. Property-Backed Confidence.
Talk to our team today to find out how you can invest with confidence in 2025 and beyond.
Data Source: QV’s March 2025 House Price Index Report